TERRA NOVA

TERRA NOVA EXPLORING VIRTURL WORLDS

Economics of FFXI

• 文中に登場する学生の論文
  http://lgst.wharton.upenn.edu/hunterd/VirtualEconomies.pdf

May 12, 2004
Economics of FFXI

FFXIの経済

Two Wharton undergrad honors students, Evan Schneyer and Justin Nash, saw a presentation I gave on the economics of virtual worlds, and decided to study Final Fantasy XI:Online. FFXI is a tough world to study, coz the data is not out in the open like some other worlds: all auctions take place in game-hosted auction houses. So, for anyone who wants to try to do this, here is the process you have to follow:

2人のウォートン大学の優等生、Evan SchneyerとJustin Nash、が私が仮想世界の経済について行ったプレゼンテーションを見て、Final Fantasy XI Onlineを研究すると決めました。FFXIは研究するのが難しい世界であり、それは他のいくつかの世界と違い、データが外部に公開されていないからです: すべての競売取引は、ゲームが提供する競売所の中で行われます。そのため、これをやろうとする人は誰でも、以下に示すようなプロセスを踏まねばなりません:

1) Build an eleborate screen-capture-OCRing system to gather the data.
2) Collect a mass of data about the prices that objects sell for in the world, making sure you account for the different auction houses, nations, and the like.
3) Create a series of meaningful charts to understand what was going on.

1) データを収集するために、精巧なスクリーンキャプチャ＆OCRを行うシステムを作ること。
2) 異なる競売所、国、といった物について説明するために、その世界で売られる物品の値段に関する膨大なデータを収集すること。
3) 何が起こっているかを理解するための、一連の有意義な図を作成するｋこと。

Of course you don't have to do this, because they've done it and written up a report on the economics of the world, which I'm hosting here.

もちろんあなたはこれをしなくてもよいんですが。なぜなら彼らがそれを既に行い、そして私がここに掲載している、その世界の経済についての報告書を書きあげてくれましたから。

Some highlights of the report:

その報告書のハイライト:

1) It's trivially easy, once you collect this data, to arbitrage prices across nations. Various places have wildly different prices for the same object, and transfer between places is a one-click process.
2) There is a pricing differential in exactly the same object depending on the time of day. This corresponds with the times that Japanese and North American users log on.
3) Certain objects are susceptible to supply shock, where an individual can easily corner the market in economically significant assets (à la the Hunt Boys and silver).
4) There's much more. Read the paper...

1) ひとたびこのデータを集めると、国間の価格差からさやとりをすることは、取るに足らないほど簡単です。同じ物の価格が場所によってかなり違い、そして場所間で輸送を行うのは1クリックでできるからです。
2) 同じものでも一日の中で時間によって価格が違います。これは、日本と北米のユーザーがログインしている時間に対応しています。
3) 個人が経済的に重要な資産において容易に買占めを行えるところでは、特定の物品はサプライショックを起こしやすいです。
4) もっと知りたい人は、論文を読んでください...

I don't know if Square-Enix are aware of these sorts of economic problems with their world, but they surely should be. Eventually every developer is going to have to have a better idea of what is going on in the economics of their worlds, otherwise smart young guys like Evan and Justin will start taking them for all their worth, without having to use sploits or dupes to do it. For any game developers out there who are starting to realize that they need to deal with the economics of their worlds, I happen to know that Justin and Evan are looking for jobs. Graduates with majors in Finance and Computing don't come along every day, especially ones who know gaming, and can do economic modeling of MMOGs. I'd suggest you send them an email. They do really really good work, as you can see for yourself.

■eが彼らの世界のこのような経済上の問題に気づいているかは私には分かりません、しかし彼らは気づくべきでしょう。結局、開発者は皆、何が彼らの世界の経済が良い方向に向かわせるかの考えを持たなければならないでしょう。さもなければ、EvanとJustinのような賢い若者が、不正書き換えもdupeもすることなく、自分たちのためにそれをやってしまうでしょう。ゲーム世界の経済をどう扱うべきかに気づき始めたすべてのゲーム開発者の為に、私はJustinとEvanが職を探していることを記しておきます。経済学とコンピュータ学を優秀に修め、その中でも特にゲームについて知っており、MMORPGの経済モデルについて語れる者はそうそうは現れないでしょう。私は彼らにE-mailを送ることを提案します。彼らはお分かりのように本当に本当によい働きをします。

Posted by Dan Hunter on May 12, 2004 | Permalink

TrackBack?
TrackBack? URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/t/trackback/727448

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Economics of FFXI:

» The Study of Virtual Worlds from Latcarf's Locution I happened upon a pretty cool weblog today. The site is called Terra Nova. In general, the site is about being a "collaborative weblog experiment...about an emerging social phenomenon called 'virtual worlds' -- computer-generated, persistent, immersive, a [Read More]

Tracked on Mar 10, 2005 8:17:42 PM

Comments
Looking forward to reading this - but I did scan the technical methods page: impressive work. Hats off.

Posted by: Nathan Combs | May 12, 2004 10:54:43 AM

Wow! Very impressive work.

Posted by: Cory Ondrejka | May 12, 2004 5:00:39 PM

I don't know if Square-Enix are aware of these sorts of economic problems with their world, but they surely should be. Eventually every developer is going to have to have a better idea of what is going on in the economics of their worlds, otherwise smart young guys like Evan and Justin will start taking them for all their worth, without having to use sploits or dupes to do it

IMO, this is not an economic problem though. And the game developers loose nothing at all when people do this. In fact this is very much the way real world markets work every day. How many people make a living simply by being merchants, brokers and taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities? The truth is, these people are what make market economies work - as more and more people learn to take advantage of these opportunities in the game, the margins get slimmer and slimmer and the markets get more effecient and mature.

Look at it this way, moving equipment to different locations or selling it at different times of the day is a SERVICE that helps other people obtain these items. Japanese players don't want to try to log in during US prime time, and players in high level areas don't want to travel across the world just to buy something because the opportunity cost is too great. They are willing to pay a premium for other people to do this service for them.

Posted by: Riley | May 12, 2004 9:54:36 PM

This report is very interesting (also due to the fact that I'm playing FFXI ) - but the data is still very fresh (only 2 months old). I remember the price fluctuation of platinum ore - one of the most expensive ores used in crafting. First (about 4-5 months ago) the price was about 30k. Then people started to flood the market with it - as it was one of the most profitable sources of income. The price dropped to as low as 15k. Now the price is about 30k again. But it took almost 5 months.

I think (as we saw earlier in SWG economy post) that GMs tend to manipulate the market to balance it (eg. - they buy out some stuff for much higher prices (bid price was 15k - they buy it for 30k - price history shows that all items were sold for 30k, next seller sells it for 30k).

Anyway - great report and methodology. Looking forward to seeing more updates soon.

Posted by: Tomasz Wozniak | May 13, 2004 8:52:20 AM

Tomasz,

Then it would appear that GMs are the de facto central bankers, no?

People shouldn't have to build "an eleborate screen-capture-OCRing system to gather the data"

Good work, gonna have to read it,

Frank

Posted by: magicback | May 13, 2004 8:58:27 PM

Most excellent to see!

I've had vague thoughts of throwing together a packet sniffer to capture an analyze SWGs prices (a bit easier than an OCR, but less legal I suspect).

I concur with the "This is a feature, not a bug" market. Primarily because I used arbitrage across time (buying during the cheap prime hours, auto-selling in the wee hours) to build my initial nest egg in SWG.

While tools like this should be available to the developers, I do not think they should come for free to players. Information is power, and it should be up to the players to gather the information.

• Brask Mumei

Posted by: Brask Mumei | May 21, 2004 8:25:48 AM